NEW home sales rebounded in Shanghai for the third consecutive week although buying sentiment in general still remained sluggish due to the effects of government curbing measures and less impact in a slack season.
Sales of new homes, excluding those built under the city's affordable programs, jumped 48.3 percent from a week earlier to 76,000 square meters last week while the average price fell 1.6 percent to 20,653 yuan (US$3,141) per square meter, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co said yesterday.
"Compared with the average weekly volume of 191,000 square meters registered in the city over the past 12 months, there still seems a long way to go before the local market regains its strength," said Zhao Baogeng, a researcher at Uwin. "Low- to mid-class residential projects accounted for the majority of home transactions during the seven-day period while one luxury project managed to secure a sales contract."
Of the city's 10 best-selling housing projects last week by transaction area, seven were sold for less than 20,000 yuan per square meter, according to Uwin statistics. Bucking the trend, however, a 353-square-meter apartment at Casa Lakeville in the prime Xintiandi area was sold at 161,070 yuan per square meter, the third-highest in Shanghai so far this year.
In the first half of January, two apartments at Tomson Riviera in Lujiazui of Pudong New Area were sold for 176,832 yuan and 162,591 yuan per square meter, respectively.
New home sales have plunged in Shanghai since late January when the central government imposed the latest tightening policies.
Over the period between January 27 and Sunday, only 306,000 square meters of new homes were sold across the city, about one third of the average monthly level recorded over the past year, Uwin data showed.
2011年3月2日星期三
2011年2月11日星期五
January sees 25% drop in sales of new homes
HOME buying sentiment cooled down a bit in Shanghai last month as transaction volume fell in the traditional slack season before the Spring Festival.
Sales of new homes, excluding those built under the city's affordable housing program, reached 1.05 million square meters in January, a decrease of 25 percent from December, according to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co.
Average price, meanwhile, dipped 5 percent from a month earlier to 22,992 yuan (US$3,494) per square meter, as a result of fewer deals involving high-end houses, Uwin statistics showed.
"Despite the monthly drop of 25 percent, the past month actually witnessed quite good sales compared with same month of last two years," said Lu Qilin, a Uwin researcher. "That was possibly due to the fact that more buyers were eager to conclude home purchase before the central government introduces further rein-in policies to curb speculation."
In January 2010 and 2009, new home sales in Shanghai stood at 671,961 and 463,793 square meters respectively, according to Uwin.
With tightening policies coming one after another -- increased down payment for second-home buyers, suspension of third-home purchases, property tax trials in Chongqing and Shanghai, and interest rate hikes -- home sales in the next few months are expected to drop notably and housing prices are likely to "correct" a bit to boost demand, Lu predicted.
More about Shanghai Property News
Sales of new homes, excluding those built under the city's affordable housing program, reached 1.05 million square meters in January, a decrease of 25 percent from December, according to Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co.
Average price, meanwhile, dipped 5 percent from a month earlier to 22,992 yuan (US$3,494) per square meter, as a result of fewer deals involving high-end houses, Uwin statistics showed.
"Despite the monthly drop of 25 percent, the past month actually witnessed quite good sales compared with same month of last two years," said Lu Qilin, a Uwin researcher. "That was possibly due to the fact that more buyers were eager to conclude home purchase before the central government introduces further rein-in policies to curb speculation."
In January 2010 and 2009, new home sales in Shanghai stood at 671,961 and 463,793 square meters respectively, according to Uwin.
With tightening policies coming one after another -- increased down payment for second-home buyers, suspension of third-home purchases, property tax trials in Chongqing and Shanghai, and interest rate hikes -- home sales in the next few months are expected to drop notably and housing prices are likely to "correct" a bit to boost demand, Lu predicted.
More about Shanghai Property News
2010年12月17日星期五
Factors Affecting Property Prices in China
(1) RMB Exchange Rate
It is expected to rise at least by 3-5% per annum
(a) Negative to Exporters:
e.g. Light Industries, textiles, machineries etc
A drop of 3% = electric appliances, mobile phone, cars manufacturers’ decrease of profit by 30-50%.
A Drop of 1% = 1% drop of textiles industries’ profitability.
(b) Positive to:
# Property and Stock Markets (International hot money)
RMB exchange has risen by >20% since 2005, Property prices in major cities have grown by 2-4 times.
Positive to:
# Enterprises who have huge foreign loans or who need to
import a lot of raw materials/components.
e.g. Paper Mill, Airlines, Car Manufacturers etc
1% escalation in RMB exchange = RMB 500M FX gain for China Southern Airlines.
(2) Economic Growth
-China‘s GDP in 2009 was USD 4.81 trillion (RMB
33,535.30B), > 2008’s by 8.7%.
- GDP for 1st Qtr 2010 was USD 1.18 trillion,
YTY Growth = 11.9%.
- China is the second largest economy in the world
(3) Population and Urbanization
(4) Interest Rate and Inflation
4.1) Interest rate is going to be low in the foreseeable future.
4.2) Inflation affects investment mentality and The People’s Bank’s interest rate policy.
(5) Affordability
5.1) Growth of disposable income
5.2) Mortgage Rate
5.3) Housing Fund Factors affecting property prices in China
(6) Government Policies
6.1) Monetary Policies
6.2) Real Estate Market Regulatory Policies
6.3) Social Welfare Policies
6.4) Labour Policies
6.5) Foreign Investment Policies
(7) Economic Structural Reforms
7.1) Double Track System?
7.2) FX Reform
7.3) Financial Market
7.4) Local Market Demand
7.5) The 12th 5 Year Plan
It is expected to rise at least by 3-5% per annum
(a) Negative to Exporters:
e.g. Light Industries, textiles, machineries etc
A drop of 3% = electric appliances, mobile phone, cars manufacturers’ decrease of profit by 30-50%.
A Drop of 1% = 1% drop of textiles industries’ profitability.
(b) Positive to:
# Property and Stock Markets (International hot money)
RMB exchange has risen by >20% since 2005, Property prices in major cities have grown by 2-4 times.
Positive to:
# Enterprises who have huge foreign loans or who need to
import a lot of raw materials/components.
e.g. Paper Mill, Airlines, Car Manufacturers etc
1% escalation in RMB exchange = RMB 500M FX gain for China Southern Airlines.
(2) Economic Growth
-China‘s GDP in 2009 was USD 4.81 trillion (RMB
33,535.30B), > 2008’s by 8.7%.
- GDP for 1st Qtr 2010 was USD 1.18 trillion,
YTY Growth = 11.9%.
- China is the second largest economy in the world
(3) Population and Urbanization
(4) Interest Rate and Inflation
4.1) Interest rate is going to be low in the foreseeable future.
4.2) Inflation affects investment mentality and The People’s Bank’s interest rate policy.
(5) Affordability
5.1) Growth of disposable income
5.2) Mortgage Rate
5.3) Housing Fund Factors affecting property prices in China
(6) Government Policies
6.1) Monetary Policies
6.2) Real Estate Market Regulatory Policies
6.3) Social Welfare Policies
6.4) Labour Policies
6.5) Foreign Investment Policies
(7) Economic Structural Reforms
7.1) Double Track System?
7.2) FX Reform
7.3) Financial Market
7.4) Local Market Demand
7.5) The 12th 5 Year Plan
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